The Full Series - how to avoid a "No" from a VC
Written by Gerry Langeler   
Wednesday, April 28, 2010

It has come to our attention that in certain parts of the world, the "How to Avoid a "No" from VCs" series, originally written for Seattle 2.0, is "not accessible."  Hopefully those same folks in far-off lands will not see the OVP blog as in any way subversive.  So, for the record, here is the multi-part series all in one place.

Where does VC money come from?


Let's start at the beginning, a very good place to start (as Julie Andrews in The Sound of Music would say).  For those start-ups interested in raising venture capital (VC) dollars, it pays to understand your customer.  In this case, the customer is for your stock, not your products - but the same principals apply.  The better you know your customer and their "care abouts" the more likely you are to match your offering to their needs.
 
Most dollars managed by venture capital firms of any size come from institutional sources such as pension funds, charitable trusts, university endowments and so on.  And just as you need to understand your customer, it never hurts to understand your customer's customer.  Those major institutional sources of money have a couple of things in common.
 
  1. They put a rather small percentage of their total capital into private equity overall (which includes buyouts, etc.), and usually less than half of that into venture capital.  As an asset class, we are a very small piece of what they do every day.  So, while they invest in venture capital funds to try to get better returns than they can in public markets, and are ready to accept some added risk and illiquidity to do so, if we don't deliver they get more internal grief than the dollars involved probably justify.
  2. They are judged internally on internal rate of return (IRR) in most cases.  A select few get judged also on multiples on capital (more about this another time).  But by being on the IRR clock, they care about not just how much we make, but how fast we get that cash back to them.  If you ever wonder why VCs seem to be impatient, here's a place to start.
  3. In the venture capital asset class, those institutional investors have literally hundreds of funds to choose from.  And while we have all heard the mantra that "past performance is no guarantee of future results" we also know that most decisions by these folks are driven very strongly by what you last fund or two did, not how convincing your presentation is.
Now, for one thing about how we the VCs deal with our customers.  About every four to five years, we have to go back to raise a new fund.  That is because each fund we raise has both a total expected "life" of about 10 years, and a contractually limited investing in new companies period of about five years.  So, it is at times like those that we very literally get to find out if we get to stay in business.  If our investors (called Limited Partners) don't find the performance and prospects of our recent prior funds compelling, their easy option is to say "no" to the new fund.  Remember, they have hundreds of other choices, and we are small potatoes in their eyes.
 
So, when you wonder why VCs are both VERY selective about where we place our funds, and VERY involved in how well those investments perform, you now have a picture of our world. 
 
We have to raise money just the way you do.  We have competitors just as you do (in fact we have many more).  And we all recognize that no matter how successful we may have been in the past, "what have you done for me lately" applies to us as much as any other industry.
 
Addendum..................................................................

A reader asked:
 
More about fund internals e.g. How funds receive the money (all at once, or in tranches), how the money is allocated over time, how profit is returned to investors and what happens if there is none, what happens if an investment (a startup) doesn't perform in the expected time-frame but is still promising. Also how the VC firm itself profits from it's activity and what the margins are, what happens to that margin if the fund performs well vs badly.
 
  • VC funds receive cash from our investors in tranches.  We don't want the money all up front, because that would start the IRR clock ticking on all that money, most of which would be sitting in the bank earning meager interest.  However, we get to call the tranches as we need them (called a "capital call" in our parlance). So, we wait until either we have an investment coming up, or need money for our day-to-day operations, and then call an amount that matches our need.
  • The money isn't exactly allocated over time, but we do plan on a spread of need in the following way.  We get a "management fee" on the total amount of committed cash - usually in the 2% area, and that covers our salaries, office rent, travel, etc.  We plan on that being available year after year over the 10 year life of the fund, although it usually tails off in later years, for reasons I won't detail here to keep this succinct.  Then there come the investments.  We tend to plan to average about one new investment per partner per year.  So for us, with 5 partners and a 5 year investing life, we target about 25 total investments per fund.  Of course, you entrepreneurs aren't quite so manageable, so some years (like 2008) we do more: 9 in our case.  Other years, we do fewer.  Every time we make a new investment, we allocate follow-on funds to that company, not withstanding the fact that all of you claim you'll only need one check!  :-) In fact, for every dollar we put in initially, we usually put $2 in "reserve".  Often, even that is not enough.
  • When our companies are sold or go public we return those funds to the Limited Partners.  Initially, they get their money back in proportion to the amount invested by them and from our private contributions to the fund.  However, once we have paid back all their capital in (think of that as the total size of the fund), then we get what is called "carried interest" on the gain.  For most funds, that amounts to about 20% of the profits. 
  • If there is no profit on an individual deal, such is life.  This is a high risk business we are in, and most individual projects fail. But, if we don't generate a profit on the whole portfolio of deals (see: bubble funds) then our Limited Partners get very cranky with us - as they should. But, beyond not investing in any future funds of ours, that is the extent of what can happen at that point.
  • If a start-up doesn't perform in the expected time, but is still promising, we call it, "Normal". :-)  Not widely known fact, but of the 120 some-odd companies we've backed over 27 years, not one (that's right NONE) made their original business plan.  Yet, we've had the pleasure to grow some very successful enterprises that made our investors a lot of money.  This is why we reserve those extra dollars you don't think you'll need!
  • VC firms and partners profit in essentially only one way.  It's what I call the Vidal Sassoon model, "If you don't look good, we don't look good." If our portfolio companies (in aggregate) return considerably more than what we paid in, then we look good.  You'll hear about how we like to make 10 times our money or better (this is true!). But, the reason we have to shoot for those numbers in each project is that usually we're wrong, and the company either loses money (often all of it) or doesn't make much.  So, to cover our losers, and our day-to-day expenses, we need our winners to be big winners.  A good venture fund will return to its investors somewhere north of 2x what they invested.  At 3x or better, everybody gets very excited.  Another way to think about this is a bogey over the S&P 500.  Most investors will tell you that if they can net 500 basis points (5%) or better over the S&P, compounded over the life of the fund, they are happy.

 

 Much more (6 articles) after the break....

 

Why do most VCs say "No" - most of the time?


We know it can be very frustrating to entrepreneurs to put their best foot forward, make what they consider a compelling presentation, and yet get turned away, again and again.
 
So, why are we so "mean"?
 
Well, hopefully we are not that, even if we don't choose to invest.  In fact, our internal goals are for those we turn down to go away at least with some valuable free consulting for their time and effort.
 
But we do say "No" the vast majority of the time, and owe it to you to explain ourselves better, in general and in specific.  For this post, I'll focus on the general and on our internal dynamics.  Over the coming weeks, I'll address things that begin to reach more directly across to your side of the table, and to those specifics.  If you want some perspective in advance, feel free to visit the OVP blog and check out the now 5-part series "Behind Closed Doors". (link is to the first in the series)
 
We say "No" most often because, frankly, the vast majority of start-ups simply aren't right for institutional venture capital. The companies involved are never going to scale to a size that makes our investment worthwhile. 
 
To explain, here's some simple math, using our fund as an example.  OVP VII is a $250M pool of capital.  Our fees and expenses will eat up about 15%-20% of that over 10 years (let's call it $40M). We'll make about 24 investments in OVP VII, and assume we average about $9M invested in each company over their life.  We'll usually own 20%-25% of each of these companies. Finally, assume typical venture fund dynamics: that 33% fail (where we lose some or all of our investment), 33% are only OK (we get our money back, or maybe a little bit of a profit), and the final 33% are the ones we feel good about.
 
For the eight that failed, say we lost 50% (say $35M) out of the $72M put in, so we're now "down" $75M from where we started ($35M, plus the $40M expenses).  On the next eight, let's say we got 1.5x our capital paid in, or a $35M profit on top of our $72M invested, so we're back to $40M under water.
 
Internalize that:  we've just accounted for 2/3 of our investments, and we're not back to break even yet!
 
To be a good fund (greater than 2x paid in) those last eight have to get us at least $540M ($500M + the $40M we're down).  That means each deal has to return, on average, ~$70M.  At 20% ownership, that means each has to average a market value of $350M.  But for those eight to average that, probably two have to be well north of $500M, with one probably close to $1B.  Those are "big ideas" indeed.
 
Now, how many start-ups can legitimately claim that if all goes according to plan, they will reach a market capitalization of $350M-$1B?   Yet, if we invest in a company knowing it never can - even if it executes well - then we are stacking the odds against us ever having a good fund for our investors.
 
To be fair, we actually do this periodically, because we know that a higher hit rate of companies in the lower $100Ms can balance us out. And we talk ourselves into believing that THIS deal is not going to be one of those losers, hence the higher hit rate. (I'll leave it to you to decide whether this is folly.)  But, at numbers below $100M as an optimistic exit value, the math just doesn't ever work for us.  Yet, there are many, many fine companies that can be built that end up in this value range.  They can be very rewarding to their founders and employees, serving their customers and society well.
 
This is why there is a real place for investors such as friends and family, angels, small venture funds, customer financing, the whole panoply of financial backers to assist the whole range of companies for whatever scale they should strive to be.  For example, if you were to divide all the numbers above by 5, and then approach a $50M venture fund or angel group, you might see something that fits your world (and theirs). The important thing is to match your realistic company scale to the proper financing source.  If more entrepreneurs did this before approaching potential investors, there would be fewer disappointments on both sides.
 
Of course, if you do have one of those "big ideas", we VCs most definitely want to check it (and you) out!
 
Next time, more specifics that you can use...

 

How to avoid a "no" from a VC - part 1 (People)


OK - a few weeks ago I promised more details on how to avoid the dreaded "no" from your local (or not so local) venture capitalist.  It seems the best way to organize this series is around the four major risks all VCs think about when looking at a new potential investment: People, Product, Market, & Financing.
 
The old saw in the VC biz is investors invest in three things: people, people and people. There's more than a little truth to that.  We've seen great teams dig themselves out of some deep holes, and weak teams dig themselves into some deep holes. 
 
But how do you know you have a great team, at least in the eye of the beholder (us)?
 
First, ask yourself this question:  "What is the probability that there is a team with more domain expertise, more horsepower, and more high-level industry connections located somewhere along the Silicon Valley, Boston, London, Zurich, Haifa, Mumbai, Shenzhen, Tokyo, Seoul corridor?" Really - ask yourself that!  Because we are asking ourselves that as you speak.
 
We know all too well that in this global, internet-savvy world, unique ideas are fleeting. But, unique teams are precious. 
 
If you can't answer the question above with a solid "yes", then ask yourself if you CAN gather such a team.  We understand that early-stage startups often start up with less than fleshed-out teams.  So, know where you are weak or missing talent.  Know what you don't know, but know you need to know.  And know that if you share that level of introspection with us, we will be much more impressed than if you try to blow by us with a patched together personnel story - or worse a bunch of B or C players plugged in to fill holes on an org chart.  We VCs are very used to building teams and used to working through team transitions as companies grow.  But we'd like to fully understand where that help will be needed before we begin, not after the first key milestones are missed.  And we'll be evaluating how much heavy lifting is reasonable and still be expected to succeed.
 
Next, beat me to the punch.  I have a question I love to spring on unsuspecting entrepreneurs. (I guess this post ends that opportunity)  I go around the room and ask each member of the founding team to describe who they are, their background,  and their role. 

Now, I'm looking at you, "Bob, what about you?"
and you say..."I'm the CEO!"
and I say..."Why?" (this is usually the first time anyone has asked this person that question)
and you say..."Because I'm the founder."
and I say..."So?" (long pause...)
"What do you think a start-up CEO has to be good at?  Are you good at those things?"
 
You'd be amazed how many times I've done this and how many Dan Quayle moments (deer in the headlights) it has engendered. Let me be clear, I'm not doing this to be mean.  I'm doing this to make a point.  You wouldn't hire a VP of R&D unless they had proven they had the right skills to do that job, nor a VP of Sales, nor a CFO.  But founder after founder thinks that being a founder is all it takes to be a good CEO.  We have lots of evidence to the contrary.  
 
To be fair, being a founder actually shows you do have one key attribute of successful startup CEO's - the ability to craft a compelling vision of the future direction of the enterprise and then get people to follow that vision.  But, vision buys you the first couple of months. After that, only steely-eyed execution matters for the next few years.  And the fact that I put entrepreneurs on the spot doesn't mean they can't be CEO.  It means they need to understand that from the day they take our money it's no longer about them, or about us.  It's about the enterprise and what's good for it. If that means you are a one in a million like a Bill Gates or a Michael Dell and can take the company from day one to billions in sales - terrific!  If it means you need to step into another role in six months - terrific!  What we all need to be working on is building a powerful, lasting, valuable enterprise - with whoever we need in whatever roles need filling.
 
My final ploy on this topic is to ask a simple question, "Do you want to be the boss, or do you want to be rich?" There is only one right answer (for us). Again, it doesn't mean you can't be both - but it means if it becomes clear someone else is needed to help the company reach its potential, you are not confused about our shared need for economic success.  By the way, there is absolutely nothing wrong with answering that question, "the boss."  It just means you are not right for institutional venture capital - and as I said in an earlier post, there's nothing wrong with that, either.
 
In the end, we look at the team and say to ourselves. "Are these guys and gals likely to go toe to toe with those phantom start-ups around the world that are somewhere between 6 months behind and 6 months ahead - and win?"  If we think you are, then we start thinking seriously about the next three risk areas. 
 

So, next time - we'll talk products/technology. 

How to avoid a "no" from a VC - part 2 (Product)


Last time (in part 1), I talked about the People issue.  This time, we’ll move on to the second of the four great risks VCs evaluate when looking at a new deal: the Product. 

Because we are technology investors, at OVP this actually means Product + Technology since in many of our investments it is not a certainty the product envisioned by the founding team can actually be delivered, or will work as advertised.
 
In any event, as you are presenting your business plan to us, we are asking the following questions about your product and when appropriate, your technology:
 
1)      If this is an area of deep technology barriers, do you have clear rights to the intellectual property (IP) you need to have freedom to operate?  How much work has been done to validate that assumption?  Who are the competitors most likely to feel threatened by your arrival – especially those who employ more lawyers than you will have total employees? If this is not a patent issue but one of know-how and trade secrets, as in most software companies, what is the evidence that you possess proprietary advantage?
 
2)      How hard is it to do what you are setting out to do?  This actually cuts both ways:  If what you are doing is not hard, that means it is very likely you will deliver, but it will be much easier for someone to come up your tailpipe. If what you are doing is very hard, then you may not succeed in getting it done, but if you do, you’ll be in the clear for a while.
 
Frankly, if we have to choose, we’ll go with the latter. We like tough technology barriers erected for others to have to hurdle. Not all VCs do – another reason to match yourself to your potential funding source.
 
3)      Is your planned offering a “feature”, a “product line”, or a “company platform?”  Most great companies are not built around a single product, but a set of products covering a range of needs across some adjacent market segments.
 
So, we ask ourselves: Is this a capability that we might see subsumed in the next release of some Google or Microsoft offering (a feature)?  Or is this a capability that might be stand-alone for a while, but really needs to be part of a larger more complete offering to succeed (a product)?  Or is this a platform, with a product as its first deliverable, but with a broad foundation that can support multiple products and/or services over time (a company)?  Companies built around a single product can be successful, but they are inherently more risky because a competitor can hurt you much more easily than if you are a platform.  Platforms can be harder to get launched, because they may not address enough of a pain point immediately to get budget dollars.
 
We don’t ever knowingly invest in a “just a feature” deal.  We will sometimes do a "product deal" if we think its space is large enough.  Platforms are our favorite, as long as the first product from that potential platform can penetrate the market on its own merits.
 
4)      However, for those who lean towards a platform play there is a trap.  Somewhere at the outer reaches of a platform you become a “boil the ocean” project. Those companies are simply biting off more than any rational start-up can chew – often more than any large company can chew. (Mixed metaphors are us).  Ask yourself if any reasonable team of people can do all the things you are setting out to do in the time allotted. 
 
That said, the company I helped found (Mentor Graphics) was told by knowledgeable observers that we couldn’t possibly do what we said we were going to do.  When we did, we became the fastest growing software company ever to $200M in sales (to this day, in constant dollars).  So, if you can boil maybe not the ocean but a good sized bay, the rewards can be terrific!
 
5)      Do you have adequate control of your destiny?  One of the very first VC deals I was involved in as an outside board member was planning to build its future success on top of Windows 1.0.  (yes, I am that old) You can guess how that one ended.  This is not to say there aren’t big rewards available for those who build into existing eco-systems.  But betting on a new external eco-system to arrive on your schedule is multiplying your risk.  Betting on an eco-system to spring up around your little piece of the world, as a requirement for your success, is multiplying your arrogance.
 
6)      Does your success require success to be successful?  Huh?  You’d be amazed at the number of Internet deals we’ve seen that essentially posit, “We’re going to do X, and then once we get to 10 million unique visitors a month, we can monetize that with advertising.”  Well, of course you can!  The problem is getting to the 10M uniques. That is damn hard. Assuming you can make that happen by just showing up is naive.
 
7)      Do you have multiple revenue streams?  That’s not good.  What?  Doesn’t that lower risk?  Not in our experience.  There’s a proverb on my wall that says, “Do not try to catch two frogs with one hand.’  As a start-up, you barely have one hand.  Some of us can remember back to the early days of Sun when Scott McNealy was hedging his bets with both the Sparc architecture and Intel architecture….and Sun was struggling.  His famous, “Let’s put all the wood behind one arrowhead” was a key turning point in their ultimate success (until recent times).
 
Again, to be fair many angel investors love multiple revenue streams.  In their world, it does reduce risk.  But, they usually don’t have the diversification we have, and usually aren’t as ready to be totally wrong and lose all their money in that investment in return for a chance to be screamingly right.  So, a project that has multiple revenue streams may be better for angels than for VCs.
 
Final thought, if you do present multiple streams look at your numbers.  Are there some streams that you could just drop and not materially change the top and bottom line?  If so, do that!

Let me leave you with a case study of a deal OVP did that looks as if it will be a huge winner.  I will not name it to protect the innocent, and to not jinx it, either.

This company came to us with a revolutionary product concept that was essentially two orders of magnitude better than the competition.  In fact, it was so much better it would open up potentially huge new demand.  But, to succeed they had to deliver on three separate technology areas, pushing or breaking the state-of-the-art in all three.  This was VERY close to a boil the ocean project, so much so that one of our more risk-averse partners at the time voted "no" on the deal.  But, the rest of us thought the risk was balanced by such a large potential reward that it was worth the chance. In addition, this was (and is) a killer team, so the People risk part helped mitigate the Product risk.

The company had all its IP nailed down and it would be completely self-reliant. Although it might ultimately engender a new eco-system around it, that wasn’t necessary for it to succeed.  A very large company could be built around the initial product concept, but the technology (if all three legs worked) had applicability into adjacent areas.  It had a single major revenue stream, albeit a very different model than its industry was used to.

Time will tell whether this one delivers as it appears it will – but against the criteria above, it made our Product cut-line with ease. 

Next time, part 3 on the VC decision tour will cover Market. And it will contain some controversial positions, you can be sure!  :-) 

How to avoid a "no" from a VC - part 3 (Market)


So, previously, we've talked about the first two risks VCs evaluate when looking at a new deal (People & Product). Now, on to risk number three: Market.
 
In many ways, this can be the toughest to figure out, since so often start-ups are targeting markets that don't exist yet, or are bringing products to market that could potentially change the dynamics in existing markets.   In fact, this is the question "lisafernow" asked after my last post.  "What evidence do you have that your prospective consumer really needs and will buy what you're offering?"  This is essentially a test of customer readiness.
 
Frankly, we put about zero weight on market research reports from the big consulting and pundit firms.  They are remarkably self-serving, are usually overly optimistic as to timing, and can't foretell the future any better than the rest of us. So, when it comes to market analysis we go about this in the most basic, bottom's-up way we can. We ask the customer! 
 
One of the most surprising things I've found over the years is how willing complete strangers are to take our calls, and share in-depth insights into their businesses, their "care-abouts" and their priorities. This goes all the way back to my days as an entrepreneur, when we emulated vaudeville and traveled the country asking these questions face-to face of potential customers.  We started with those not quite in the mainstream and worked our way to "Vegas," which in our case was Motorola .  By the time we got there, we'd gotten feedback to our initial concept and adjusted accordingly, our "act" was polished and so when we presented our product concept to MOT they said, essentially, "If you build it, we will come." Then we went back and asked our engineering team if they could build it.
 
As potential investors, we maintain a cadre of contacts in the industries we serve, and so when an entrepreneur gets our attention, we get on the phone and ask those key industry players to evaluate the idea.  If we don't feel confident explaining the product ourselves, we'll put the start-up team on the phone and play fly-on-the-wall while we listen to the pitch, and the questions that are asked.  The amazing thing is, it doesn't take too many of these calls to pick out a pattern.  Some academics found years ago that somewhere about 20 you've hit diminishing returns.   We often seem to get there at about 10.
 
The most important thing you can do is make these calls before we do.   What you never want to have happen is for us to have more customer insight than you do. So, before you darken our doors, darken the doors of your prospects and be prepared to share that anecdotal insight with us.  We'll still do our own, but you'll have started out on the right foot.
 
Of course, sometimes if you are at the leading edge of technology,  you are explaining a product the customer can't even fathom.  These are the really tough ones.  On our end, we do hobnob with some "futurist" type folks and we'll certainly bring them into the mix.  Our key issue on these "change the world" deals: is the product a nice-to-have or a have-to-have.  The difference can be subtle, or time driven.  The initial cell phones were nice-to-have, because they were big, bulky, expensive and not too many people had them.  But once they hit the right form factor, cost and penetration, they became have-to-have's.  The problem for VCs is we usually can't wait long enough for a nice-to-have to become a have-to-have.  And when we are wrong (which is often) it is because we didn't evaluate properly the fact that technology moves faster than people do. 
 
Another major issue besides customer readiness is market scale.  I wrote some about that in my first post on Seattle 2.0, so I'll just refer you to that.  The key issue is if you are successful, can your company grow to a scale whereby our economics work?  There are many fine companies that create products customers are ready to buy, that are have-to-haves, but there just aren't enough of those customers, or they aren't willing to pay enough, to grow a major enterprise.
 
One additional thought about markets: I've seen thousands of product feature comparison matrices in start-up presentations.  But not once have I ever seen a company comparison matrix.  Yes, your new product may be better in certain ways, but what about your distribution channel? What are the switching costs for customers who have solved your problem in some way to date? What is the average evaluation cycle for new products in this market? How important to your customer is eco-system integration?  Do those big, established competitors have relationships with your prospects that transcend a simple product feature decision?  When they FUD you for being a small struggling start-up, how will you counter that? (a strategic partnership, perhaps?)  When they cut price to keep you at bay, how will you respond?
 
Market entry against entrenched competitors is very, very hard. Relying on product features alone to carry the day is very, very shortsighted.
 
Next time, the fourth (forgotten) risk (by entrepreneurs): Financing

 

How to avoid a "no" from a VC - part 4 (Financing)


When is a lemming not a "lemming?"  When it's bath time!
 
I'm not even sure where I was going with that, but there is a point to be made.  Many folks criticize VCs for acting like lemmings, all blindly jumping off the same cliff into the sea, investing in the same sectors, while ignoring interesting projects outside those currently hot spaces.  There is a lot of truth to that complaint.  But there is a rationale for it, too.
 
As I've said in other posts, often the hardest check to get is not the first one but the second (or third!).  When reality interjects itself into the financing process, the sparkle and promise of a Series A investment gives way to hard questions when initial targets have been missed.  It is in times like this that financing risk can become the most important risk facing a start-up.  And this is when being in a "hot space" can help overcome an otherwise cold start. 
 
Most entrepreneurs believe in at least one of two fallacies:
  1. Their business plan is correct, or better yet, conservative.  
  2. If they need more cash, investors will automatically pony up, regardless of how they've performed on the initial tranche.
The reality is that those business plans are not correct, much less conservative.   As I've stated many times, we're now at over 120 companies backed, and NOT ONE has made their initial business plan metrics.  And we've seen many, many examples of companies that, having missed their initial plan, struggled or failed to raise follow-on capital. Not only do the entrepreneurs pay in that circumstance, we do too.
 
So, when we look at a new start-up opportunity, we are asking ourselves about the financing risk in that deal.  That risk comes in at least three forms:
  • What is the capital intensity of the business?  The more money needed to take the company to the promised land, the more chances there are for a stumble to turn into a problem financing, which turns into a down round, or a fire sale.  In addition, the more money needed, the more VCs will be needed to share the load.  And the more VCs you have, the greater the chance of one or more turning negative on the deal and upsetting the syndicate dynamics. (bad syndicate dynamics kill more deals than ever gets reported)
  • What is the investment popularity of the business?  Here, lemmings rule.  I'd much rather be looking for the Series B round for a company in a hot space than a cold one. The same holds true for the Series A.  We've gone "off popularity" enough to know how hard it can be to get another VC firm to co-invest with us when we are "out-of-step" with current market psychology. (That said, we often like to be temporarily out-of-step, as that is where the big rewards can be found.)  In addition, there is nothing quite as frustrating than to have an investment in a company that is succeeding where others have failed, but be told by our friends in VC-land that they won't look at our firm for the Series B because they lost money in a similar deal years ago.
  • What is the time predictability of the business?  This is actually a part of capital intensity, but in an unsuspecting way.  You may have a business that is not capital intense on its face.  But, if it is one where no one can tell exactly when the market will engage (or if appropriate when regulatory hurdles can be jumped), then it may be more capital intense than it appears.  We saw this years ago in wireless location-based services.  We got in early (too early in retrospect) and so those start-ups that really were not very capital intensive by nature became more so as we had to wait around for the market to develop.
So, what can you do about these issues?  First, recognize they exist and they are just as important as the previous three risks in this series (People, Product, Market).  Be ready to discuss the financing risks with us. Next, find ways to mitigate them.  For example, while most software companies don't have to worry about capital intensity, even they can find creative ways to use fewer dollars (cloud computing, etc.).   If your start-up is in a currently unpopular sector, find a strategic partner who would benefit greatly from your success and get them into the first round.  Or find a customer who is desperate for your product and get paid 50% up front as a deposit. If you are in a "cold space" either find a way to morph the plan to get closer to warmer climes, or belly up to the fact that you are looking at a long, tough slog to raise capital.
 
Next, value your investment syndicate the same way you value your most critical employees. When it comes time for the next check, you absolutely need all your VCs to be telling their partners, "Yes, the company is behind plan, but our investment thesis still holds. This group deserves another check." rather than, "There is still an opportunity here, but I'm less confident in this team than I was initially."   You'd be amazed how many start-ups take their VCs for granted once that first check is in the bank.
 
Never say, "I can't wait to be done fund raising so I can get back to running the business."  Fund raising IS part of running a business! In fact, you are always (or should always be) fund raising.  So, be looking for opportunities to expose your firm to investors beyond your initial set.  Those are the ones who might lead your Series B or C round.  Jump on any chance to present in the private company portions of the investment banker beauty shows in your sector.
 
If you treat Financing risk with the same attention that you treat the other three, you'll positively stand out from 90% of the entrepreneurs who go looking for venture capital.
 

While this concludes the initial intent of a 4-part series, I'm going to add one more in the coming weeks.  It will be titled, "Part 5 - Potpourri" and deal with a number of irritants and mistakes entrepreneurs make, that while not conclusively leading to a "no," get us leaning in the wrong direction. 

How to avoid a "no" from a VC - part 5 (Potpourri)

So far, we've covered the "big four" risks in a start-up that are front of mind for every VC when you walk through the door (People, Product, Market, Financing).  But there are some other issues, irritants and obstacles you can inadvertently toss in your path that don't fit nicely into those categories.  While not as important as the big four, they can still direct an otherwise positive impression in the wrong direction.  So, beware of:

The ill-advised adviser:   This is a tough one, because once I describe the issue, you'll ask for specifics that we're not comfortable giving out. But here's the situation....you come to visit and either bring along with you, or mention that you have a key relationship with someone who we know is either a pain in the rear, or worse a charlatan who doesn't know what they are doing.  The former adds a level of friction to a process where we already have many more interesting new companies to look at than we can invest in - risking us taking a path of lesser resistance.  The latter reflects badly on your process of selection of key people (and puts up a big red flag on the People risk domain). 

But, you say, "How do I know these advisers are going to be a negative?  I'm new to the start-up scene and have no way of knowing who to trust."  Well, this is one of your first tests.  We can't get comfortable revealing the names of these folks (and there are only a few) who raise the hair on the back of our necks, because you never know when they'll hook up with the next killer deal and we do not want to be black-balled by those advisers.  But, you can look around, ask around and see who we and others prefer to deal with. 

Start with the law firms who guide most start-ups around town.  There are a handful of these, and they are all quite professional.  Use them as your introduction source to us, if you feel you need one.  This is not to say those firms can't be appropriately tough with us when they represent you.  But it says they know the rules of the game, and we know they know.  So everyone tends to operate in good faith, while representing their respective positions.  A secondary message here, you don't need to pay anyone to introduce you to us.  A quality service provider (lawyer, bank, accountant) will do so at no charge.  Better yet, they tend to know what we have funded and have not, and can point you towards the most likely VC match.

Another thing you can do is ask us (or folks like us), "We're looking for someone to advise us in area X. Can you recommend anyone?"  What may be most interesting to you are not the folks we mention, but those we don't mention.  Sometimes, that can just be a momentary oversight.  But if you ask a couple of VC firms that same question, and there is a consistent name or two missing of someone you were considering using, then you have your answer.

Control and dilution, not optimizing for success: One of the obvious questions we'll ask you is how much money you need.  There are many possible right answers, but a couple of wrong answers, too. 

If you respond with, "It depends on valuation," you just told us you are optimizing for dilution rather than for success.  The company needs a certain amount of money.  In fact, it probably needs more than you think to allow for likely slippage somewhere in product development or customer traction.  But if you skinny down the raise to optimize for dilution, you have dramatically raised the risk of running out of money at an inconvenient time.  (BTW - there is no convenient time) 

If you respond with, "I don't want to give up control," you've just hit two negative points.  First, as I've said in earlier posts, when you take institutional money it is no longer about you, or about us.  It's about optimizing the value of the enterprise for all stakeholders.  So "you" and "in control" are off the table as primary issues.  Second, someone once gave me a very cogent piece of advice.  He said, "When you are running a company, there is only one way you are in control.  That is by executing.  If you own 100% of the stock, but don't execute, someone else is in control (the bank, your customers, your suppliers...).  On the other hand, if you own 20% but execute, you have all the control you'll ever want.  No one will do anything other than sit in the back of the bus and cheer for you."  It's true.

With too many angels, you're in hell. Angel investors can be enormously helpful.  Sometimes, they may invest prior to VCs being willing to. (But DO NOT accept the notion that this is always true.  We have backed MANY companies that came to us with a business plan, and nothing else.  Angels love to try to position VCs downstream from them, to make sure they get their bite at the apple.  As with all things, the truth is fuzzier than that.)  But angels, if selected carefully, can provide business and industry guidance and connections along with their cash.   We often invest in rounds where angels provided the initial seed money, and have good, long standing relations with them afterward.

However, there are two potential problems with angels.  First, they often are good for the first check, but have trouble with follow-on financing rounds.  And, if the terms include a "pay to play," which means an investor who does not participate in later rounds gets crushed, those glowing halos can turn dark in a hurry.

In addition, unless you really fancy yourself as a cat-herder, the more angels you add to your cap table, the more cats will need to be herded.  And some of these cats will keep you up at night with yowling if you aren't right on plan, or right on the phone when they have a question.

I have a good friend who has raised an enormous sum from angels for his company (>$30M).  While he must now be ranked as an expert cat-herder, he's also on the cusp of becoming a public company by default.  That threshold is at 500 shareholders, and he's very, very close.  When he started, you can be sure he never dreamed it would take so much money, so many investors, and so much of his time.  He eschewed VCs early on, but suddenly has found religion as he approaches the 500 investor mark.  One $10M check is a whole lot easier than two hundred $50,000 checks!

"We're selling stock at $0.50 a share."  Your price per share is meaningless to us.  What matters is the implied company valuation (price per share times number of shares).  In addition, I hate to be this blunt, but the price paid will be what we offer, not what you ask.  Now, that's not to say there won't be some back and forth negotiations.  But the surest way to scare off a VC is to put a valuation on the table that we know is crazy.  Rather than try to educate you to how the world works in private equity, we're likely just to move on.  When someone asks you what valuation you are expecting, answer simply, "The market will determine that."  Your job is to get an offer.  With an offer in hand, the games can begin.

"We can't tell you what we're doing until you sign a NDA."  We can make this very short. We aren't going to sign it, so you can decide before you visit whether that is really a criteria or not.  Practically, we see thousands of new start-ups every year.  There is no way for us to be in absolute control of or even remember everything we've seen and heard about.

Now, that said, those of us who do this for a living do operate with enlightened self-interest.  We know that if we EVER violated the confidence entrepreneurs place in us, the word would get out and we would no longer see the best deals.  And that is a prescription for death in our industry.  So, deal with an established VC firm, and your ideas should be safe.  Of course, if the issue is one of disclosure for a potential patent, we'll find a way to make sure your IP is protected.

Let me close with one of my favorite entrepreneur stories that trumps the NDA example.  Years ago, I was approached by an entrepreneur who said he had a technology that was going to revolutionize the world.  In fact, it was so powerful that the company he was starting would reach over one billion dollars in revenue in just five years.  There was only one catch:  he couldn't tell me what it was until AFTER we'd invested $10M.  Now that's a powerful position!  :-)  I guess he never found that investor/sucker, because I've never heard of him again.

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